Founder of Football Outsiders
Creator of DVOA and DYAR
Compared to Bill James by The New York Times Magazine, and attributed as a “founding father of football analytics” by The Ringer, AARON SCHATZis the creator and Editor-in-Chief of Football Outsiders. Aaron is also the creator of most of the original statistical methods (DVOA, DYAR) used in NFL analysis on this website, as well as Lead Writer, Editor, and Statistician on the book series Football Outsiders Almanac (published since 2009). He also writes for ESPN.com and ESPN+, and appears weekly during the NFL season on the Off The Charts podcast. During the 2011 season, he was a regular panelist on the ESPN2 show Numbers Never Lie. Before Football Outsiders, Aaron spent five years as a radio host at WBRU Providence and WKRO Daytona Beach, and three years as the writer and producer of the Lycos 50, the Internet's foremost authority on the people, places, and things that are searched online. He has written on sports, politics, and taxes for a number of publications including The New Republic, The New York Times, The Boston Globe, Slate, The American Prospect, and the Boston Phoenix. Aaron resides in Worcester, Massachusetts and yes, is a New England Patriots fan.
Our Upset Watch column is 5-1 so far this season, and this week's pick is for the Eagles in the big Sunday night NFC East showdown. Injuries will play a major role in this game, not only in the players missing the game but also in the players who will not be at 100%.
It looks like the Kansas City Chiefs got good news on the MRI today for the knee injury suffered by Patrick Mahomes last night. No damage other than a dislocated kneecap. He'll miss at least three games.
5 comments, Last at 19 Oct 2019, 03:37pm by amin purshottam
Mike Tanier comes on this week's Off The Charts podcast to discuss the current state of the Running Backs Don't Matter theory. Then we preview three big weekend games: Eagles-Cowboys, Texans-Colts, and Vikings-Lions. (Click for audio link.)
New England moves back into the No. 1 spot this week, but overall the NFC dominates the DVOA ratings with 9 of the top 12 teams. How does 2019 compare to other years with a massive imbalance between the conferences? Let's go back in time to 2004, 1989, and other fun seasons of NFL history!
While the Cowboys have gotten away from the offensive scheme that was working so well early in the season, the Jets once again have a quarterback who can actually use the weapons around him -- and maybe even lead a surge to the playoffs.
3 comments, Last at 17 Oct 2019, 01:35pm by Guest789
I'd like to thank Vegas for making the No. 1 team in DVOA three-point underdogs this week, making our Upset Watch choice fairly easy. The Rams have more rest and the 49ers have more injuries, but it's still easy to see a path to a San Francisco victory.
5 comments, Last at 15 Oct 2019, 09:04am by Cogitus
The San Francisco 49ers move into the No. 1 spot with one of the greatest four-game starts in DVOA history. Meanwhile, the No. 2 Patriots are still having one of the greatest five-game starts in DVOA history. And the rest of the league is far, far, far behind the top two teams.