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Eagles Extend Wentz Through 2024

The Philadelphia Eagles have announced that they have signed quarterback Carson Wentz to a four-year contract extension. Adding in the final two years of Wentz's rookie deal, he is now signed with the team through 2024.

ESPN's Adam Schefter has the terms: four new years, $128 million ($107 guaranteed, potentially worth $144 million with incentives). Add that to his current deal, and Wentz is now signed for six years, $154 million.

The Eagles traded up in the 2016 draft to select Wentz second overall. Since then, he has ranked 27th, sixth, and 12th in DVOA. He missed three games in 2017 and five games last year (plus the playoffs both seasons) due to injury.

NFL reporter Adam Caplan points out that the Eagles didn't have to do this -- they could have played Wentz this season and his fifth-year option in 2020, then franchised him twice -- but player and team opted for long-term stability instead.

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Comments

13 comments, Last at 08 Jun 2019, 4:16pm

1 Re: Eagles Extend Wentz Through 2024

As an Eagles fan, I approve. The dude has serious skills and we are yet to see the best from him. The city has it's fingers crossed for his health going forward. The money is big, but at least now the Eagles won't have to beat whatever Jared Goff gets on his extension.

2 Re: Eagles Extend Wentz Through 2024

"but at least now the Eagles won't have to beat whatever Jared Goff gets on his extension."

Perhaps I'm just the QB cynic, but I'd consider it better than even that the Rams actually let Jared Goff walk now that this contract has been inked. And I'd really love to see that idea broken down and discussed from that perspective vs the default one that assumes that Jared Goff is good.

He's not. Jared Goff is not good. He's a liability, and we all saw that in the Super Bowl. And signing him to a contract that competes with Wentz would be worse for the Rams and their future chances than Flacco's contract was for the Ravens.

I won't go so far as to say that given time, McVay could be just as successful with Blake Bortles, because, well, Bortles... but has Goff ever shown us anything to demonstrate that he is really that much better than Bortles? Don't forget that Bortles could've gotten embarrassed in a Super Bowl just two seasons ago too if not for conservative coaching and Patriots fear, and the Jags cut him loose even after overpaying him.

Cutting Goff loose would be FAR more bold... but I think the current Rams braintrust might just be the team to try it. And I think they'd be right to.

5 Re: Eagles Extend Wentz Through 2024

I'm not sure. Wentz's contract is cheap. Like, really cheap. I'm not sure Nick Foles didn't get a better contract than Wentz did: Foles will hit free agency at age 34, two years before Wentz, having made $88M, and by then, the quarterback market for a serviceable 34-year old starter (e.g. an Alex Smith type) should be ~$30M/year. So assume he plays at that for 2 years, and he's now made $148M in "aggregate average contract value". (Yes, I know that's not how it works in real money, but the true money output is so jittery that it's hard to compare). And that's almost exactly the same as Wentz just got, and Wentz is dramatically younger.

If they don't think Goff is serviceable - or if they don't think they could win with a serviceable QB - they should draft another QB next year, because that's the only way you're going to actually save money vs Goff, assuming you can get him for the same contract that Wentz got. If you just let Goff walk, the pay increase to a free agent QB in 2021 will likely be *much* bigger than the performance increase.

13 Re: Eagles Extend Wentz Through 2024

Not only will a free agent QB be as expensive as Goff, but it's not very common for legitimate starters to come available, and the ones that do usually have some question marks themselves - look at Kirk Cousins. A trade would also be difficult for LA to pull off because, between their success and the fact they've traded draft picks for other veteran players the past couple of seasons, they don't have a ton of draft capital.

The above also makes it hard for them to draft a new QB next year, at least not without having to surrender a significant amount of future draft capital to do so, which then cuts into the value of riding with the QB on a rookie contract in the first place.

I'm intrigued by the idea of the Rams deciding to move on from Goff, but the inherent difficulties in pulling that off + the moves they have made over the past couple of seasons make me think it's overwhelmingly likely they stick with Goff. I guess if Goff were to totally fall apart this season they'd be in much better position to draft a QB, but at that point it's a more obvious decision.

6 Re: Eagles Extend Wentz Through 2024

If the Rams are smart, they'd trade Goff after this season, before the 2020 draft, and get at least a first rounder, possibly two firsts or one first and a second and a 3rd(spread out between 2 drafts if necessary), if they can even swing that of course! If they cant, then let him walk after 2020 and get a 3rd rounder in 2022(ha!)

Unless Goff performs to the level he did when Cooper Kupp and Todd Gurley were 100%, like during the first half of 2018

I see the chance of Goff returning to that high level unlikely, because it seems to me that once QBs like Goff lose their confidence it just doesn't come back (See Bledsoe post-1999 after belichick destroyed bledsoe's confidence with his Jets defense; for a rare comeback, see Kurt Warner with the Cards after losing his confidence against Belichick's patriots, who else of course!)

9 Re: Eagles Extend Wentz Through 2024

I think that Goff is a talented athlete. He's made some pretty impressive throws in his career.

But it seems that Goff may not be great at decision-making, especially pre-snap adjustments. The Bears and the Patriots really seemed to confuse him last year, to the point that the offense looked incompetent. I don't know how much of that is on Goff and how much is on McVay or the rest of the team.

I don't know what it would ever take for me to think Goff has overcome this weakness. I guess a full season without having a 19 passer rating game would help.

3 Re: Eagles Extend Wentz Through 2024

Yes ideally you'd like the 'information' the 2019 season is going to provide before making this commitment. But then there's the cost in terms of inflation, and additional negotiating leverage for Wentz as his rookie contract runs down, particularly if he plays well. The Eagles must have reasoned that the probability of him playing badly enough in 2019 that they wouldn't want to extend him next year anyway is low enough to make it good value to get the contract done now.

The health doesn't hugely concern me; a couple of serious injuries do not prove a player is 'injury-prone', and I'd take this as evidence that the Eagles are perfectly happy with his latest rehab.

4 Re: Eagles Extend Wentz Through 2024

"The money is big,"

Wait, what? No, it's not. The money's *amazingly* reasonable. Bleeding Green Nation actually called it a "bargain" and I totally agree. I really, really can't believe they signed him for this. Wentz really must've pushed his agent for this, or else his agent needs to be fired. Somehow the Eagles must've convinced Wentz's agent that the quarterback market's going to flatten out in the next few years, which means they're absolutely the first team that's done that.

Keep in mind, it's a 4 year extension worth $128M in new money. He had two years remaining. Which means this is the same as Wentz hitting free agency in 2021 and the Eagles signing him to a $32M/year deal.

Here's what an average top 10 QB made over the past few years:

2019: $29.7M
2018: $26.6M
2017: $23.7M
2016: $22.4M
2015: $20.8M

This growth means you should expect a top-10 QB to average around $34-38M in 2021, and $38M-50M in 2023. Note that the huge range is because average quarterback contract value's been spiking recently: it was relatively stable at ~14-14.5% of the salary cap for a while (actually *dropping* from 2015-2017) and then it's been on a sharp upward trajectory since then. If you assume the quarterback market stabilizes at ~15.5% and the salary cap slows to 5-6% growth, that gets you the low number - if you assume quarterback market continues its acceleration for a few years, that gets you the larger number.

But you can see in both of those cases that it's *highly* doubtful that Wentz's contract will be in the top 10 by the time it actually starts. Including his current contract he's barely in the top 10 *now*. I mean, he's basically being paid at Derek Carr's level, and people were talking about the Raiders *getting rid of him*.

If Wentz's contract even looks *reasonable* in three years we should all be talking about how the Eagles stabilized the quarterback market, because this deal is a big outlier right now.

8 Re: Eagles Extend Wentz Through 2024

He's getting paid enough that he shouldn't have to worry about money for the rest of his life. And his kids probably shouldn't have to worry about money.

If Wentz likes Philadelphia the town and/or Philadelphia the organization, I don't blame him for just signing a nice big contract and not having to worry about it again. If he plays well throughout the contract, I would think Wentz would put himself in position to become one of the most popular Eagles players of all time. (I don't know how popular previous Eagles players are amongst the fans.)

10 Re: Eagles Extend Wentz Through 2024

This. Great job Richie.
I think the odds low that the Eagles come to regret this like, says, the Ravens (another good organization) came to regret the Joe Flacco contract.
I think the odds low that Carson Wentz comes to regret signing for over $100 million in guaranteed money.

11 Re: Eagles Extend Wentz Through 2024

It's more about the agent and the rest of the QB market than Wentz specifically. This deal's an outlier: even Joe Banner mentioned he was surprised by the fact it lasted to 2024 on Twitter. So either the QB market stabilizes, or Wentz's agent is going to look pretty bad in the eyes of the rest of his clients.

12 Re: Eagles Extend Wentz Through 2024

I agree with all that - makes me feel good about the deal! It's not big money for an extension in this climate, as you've proven. I was more meaning it's big money compared to what Wentz was due to be paid this year, then leading on to the Goff point - better to extend early with a better deal than wait for the market to inflate.