Weekly NFL Picks
SAMPLE: Week 3, 2018
|ORDER||HOME||AWAY||LINE (HOME)||PROJ LINE||SPREAD PICK||CONF. ORDER||STRAIGHT PICK||CONF. ORDER|
Projected Point Difference noted with Green/Yellow/Red
- GREEN: Difference of a TD or more.
- YELLOW: Difference between a FG and a TD.
- RED: Difference of less than a FG.
Games are ranked from 1 (most likely to cover/win) to 16 (least likely to cover/win).
Listed lines are the "VI consensus" from VegasInsider.com.
We will not make picks on games where our projected line is within 0.1 points of the Vegas consensus line.
How are these picks different from overall DVOA reports?
Weekly NFL Picks are based on more complicated formulas than just DVOA itself. Picks against the spread are based on an equation that measures current DVOA (using certain specific splits, not just each team's total) as well as weather, injuries, and (from Week 1 to Week 10) the Football Outsiders preseason projections.
Similarly, postseason picks are different from the FO Playoff Odds Report because they are based on a more complicated formula, while the playoff odds report only considers overall DVOA.
Please note that we will try to pick all games to help those who are in pick pools that require picks for all games, but this does not mean we are suggesting wagers on all games. Don't be an idiot.
Sunday games will be updated for the last time on Saturdays.
MNF game will be updated for the last time on Monday afternoon.
Picks may be revised before Sunday. Asterisks indicate each time picks have been revised since the original posting. Projected lines are based in part on actual lines, so note that specific projections would change slightly if there are further line changes not recorded here.
Obviously, if the update date/time listed above is Friday or later, any Thursday games listed below have only been changed in confidence order; the actual lines and picks stay the same. We will not change listed picks based on constant changes in the line before gametime on Sunday.
The Weekly Picks come in two forms – against the spread and straight-up. They are derived using a formula that incorporates splits of DVOA, as well as injury and weather data.
FO’s record of regular-season picks since 2008:
|Against the Spread||Straight-Up|
* Top picks (FO line difference from actual line was more than a field goal) were 33-26-1 in 2017-2018.
† No, we don't know what happened to our accurate picks from 2013-2015, but do not let this discourage you from purchasing Premium Access. We stand by our overall performance, and we won’t conceal our down years in order to gain more subscriptions through deceit. The good news is that our picks rebounded the following years, and Premium Access offers much more than just picks against the spread.
** 2018 Broken down by predicted line:
- Straight gap TD or more: 62-17, .785
- Straight gap FG to TD: 69-35-1, .662
- Straight gap less than FG: 39-28-1, .581
- Playoffs: 6-5
*** 2017 Broken down by predicted line:
- Straight gap TD or more: 70-16, 81.4%
- Straight gap FG to TD: 65-35, 65.0%
- Straight gap less than FG: 41-27, 60.3%