Innovative Statistics
Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

2019 NFL PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 10/18/19, through Week 7 (Thursday only).

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 25,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

Denver and Kansas City DAVE are estimated for Week 7 results.

  • Carolina's DAVE is penalized 4.8% for backup quarterback Kyle Allen. Cam Newton returns by Week 8 in 20% of simulations, increasing 20% each week until he is back by Week 12 in all simulations.
  • Chicago's DAVE is penalized 6.7% for backup quarterback Chase Daniel in 20% of all Week 7 simulations.
  • Kansas City's DAVE is penalized 28.0% for backup quarterback Matt Moore in Weeks 8-10 and in 40% of all Week 11 simulations. Patrick Mahomes returns by Week 13 in all simulations.
  • New Orleans' DAVE is penalized 17.6% for backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Drew Brees returns in Week 10 in 60% of simulations, Week 11 in 20% of simulations, and Week 12 in the rest of the simulations.
  • New York Jets' DAVE is adjusted to only consider games played by (and the preseason forecast based on) Sam Darnold as quarterback.

 

NFC East

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
PHI 3-3 12.1% 9.1 1.2% 4.8% 11.7% 35.1% 1.2% 2.9% 52.8% 5.9% 4.1% 56.8% 0.0%
DAL 3-3 13.8% 8.5 0.7% 2.9% 7.4% 31.9% 1.3% 2.9% 42.9% 3.6% 4.2% 47.1% -0.1%
NYG 2-4 -18.0% 6.1 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 3.4% 0.2% 0.9% 4.1% 0.2% 1.1% 5.2% -0.3%
WAS 1-5 -24.6% 4.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

 

NFC North

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
GB 5-1 12.9% 10.6 12.9% 17.9% 16.6% 6.7% 9.9% 10.8% 54.0% 30.8% 20.7% 74.8% 1.7%
MIN 4-2 15.2% 9.8 4.3% 8.6% 9.8% 2.6% 14.4% 15.1% 25.2% 12.9% 29.5% 54.7% 3.7%
CHI 3-2 -0.5% or 6.2% 8.4 1.6% 3.6% 3.6% 1.6% 7.3% 10.0% 10.3% 5.1% 17.3% 27.6% -1.2%
DET 2-2-1 4.9% 8.3 0.8% 2.7% 4.9% 2.0% 5.3% 8.2% 10.4% 3.5% 13.5% 23.9% -0.7%

 

NFC South

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
NO 5-1 8.2% or 25.8% 11.5 28.2% 25.6% 21.2% 5.8% 4.1% 3.9% 80.9% 53.8% 8.0% 88.9% 0.0%
CAR 4-2 3.5% or 8.3% 9.1 2.6% 4.8% 6.2% 3.8% 8.6% 10.4% 17.4% 7.4% 19.0% 36.4% -1.0%
TB 2-4 -5.8% 6.7 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% 2.3% 1.3% 0.2% 3.2% 4.5% -0.2%
ATL 1-5 -10.3% 4.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.9% -0.1%

 

NFC West

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
SF 5-0 24.1% 12.1 38.9% 18.6% 9.5% 2.9% 14.4% 6.1% 69.8% 57.4% 20.5% 90.3% -0.4%
SEA 5-1 12.6% 10.4 8.1% 9.0% 6.6% 2.7% 22.5% 13.7% 26.4% 17.1% 36.2% 62.6% -0.3%
LAR 3-3 8.8% 8.6 0.8% 1.2% 1.1% 0.5% 9.5% 11.5% 3.5% 2.0% 21.1% 24.5% -1.1%
ARI 2-3-1 -17.5% 6.0 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 1.5% -0.1%

 

AFC East

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
NE 6-0 40.6% 13.5 83.2% 9.4% 2.5% 0.7% 3.5% 0.5% 95.8% 92.6% 4.0% 99.8% -0.1%
BUF 4-1 -5.8% 9.7 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 47.5% 16.7% 4.0% 3.6% 64.2% 68.3% 0.1%
NYJ 1-4 0.2% (adj.) 7.4 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 10.6% 0.2% 0.1% 18.8% 19.0% 0.7%
MIA 0-5 -59.3% 1.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

 

AFC North

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
BAL 4-2 10.2% 9.3 3.3% 15.8% 19.5% 26.1% 2.9% 4.7% 64.7% 19.2% 7.6% 72.3% -0.6%
PIT 2-4 -0.3% 7.7 0.1% 3.6% 6.6% 9.2% 5.4% 8.7% 19.5% 3.7% 14.1% 33.6% -0.1%
CLE 2-4 -10.0% 7.0 0.1% 1.9% 4.2% 9.3% 2.7% 5.2% 15.5% 2.0% 7.9% 23.3% 1.0%
CIN 0-6 -26.8% 3.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% -0.0%

 

AFC South

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
HOU 4-2 7.3% 9.5 4.6% 24.5% 17.3% 12.8% 5.6% 8.2% 59.2% 29.1% 13.9% 73.1% 0.5%
IND 3-2 -7.4% 8.3 0.6% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 4.6% 8.7% 25.4% 8.8% 13.3% 38.7% -0.1%
JAX 2-4 -3.0% 7.2 0.1% 2.2% 3.9% 4.7% 4.1% 7.7% 10.9% 2.3% 11.8% 22.8% -0.1%
TEN 2-4 -10.9% 6.3 0.0% 0.9% 1.6% 1.9% 0.7% 2.9% 4.5% 0.9% 3.6% 8.1% 1.4%

 

AFC West

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
KC 5-2 -4.8% or 23.6% 9.8 4.6% 23.5% 25.4% 17.0% 4.0% 6.3% 70.5% 28.1% 10.3% 80.8% 2.1%
OAK 3-2 -2.5% 8.2 0.6% 7.2% 6.5% 4.6% 8.0% 11.8% 18.9% 7.8% 19.8% 38.7% 0.1%
LAC 2-4 2.5% 6.8 0.0% 1.4% 3.2% 4.2% 1.6% 4.8% 8.9% 1.4% 6.4% 15.2% 1.9%
DEN 2-5 -7.6% 5.8 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 2.9% 1.7% 0.3% 4.0% 5.7% -6.7%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win 16-0
NE 81.1% 61.7% 40.5% 6.4%
SF 48.4% 29.7% 14.1% 1.2%
KC 36.2% 14.3% 8.0% 0.0%
NO 37.0% 17.0% 6.5% 0.0%
GB 27.8% 13.3% 5.3% 0.0%
SEA 18.2% 9.1% 3.6% 0.0%
HOU 24.3% 7.6% 3.4% 0.0%
BAL 22.0% 7.3% 3.4% 0.0%
MIN 16.0% 7.7% 3.1% 0.0%
PHI 15.1% 7.0% 2.8% 0.0%
DAL 12.3% 5.6% 2.2% 0.0%
CAR 9.0% 3.9% 1.4% 0.0%
CHI 6.1% 2.5% 0.9% 0.0%
DET 4.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0%
OAK 7.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.0%
LAR 4.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0%
PIT 5.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0%
BUF 5.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0%
IND 6.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0%
LAC 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0%
JAX 3.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
CLE 2.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
NYJ 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
TEN 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

 

ON THE CLOCK

 

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

 

 

Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
MIA 77.7% 98.9%
CIN 13.2% 80.3%
WAS 4.3% 70.6%
ATL 1.5% 46.0%
NYG 0.9% 29.3%
ARI 0.3% 28.2%
DEN 0.3% 26.4%
TEN 0.3% 22.6%
LAC 0.2% 16.9%
CLE 0.4% 14.9%
TB 0.1% 14.8%
JAX 0.2% 13.4%
NYJ 0.4% 11.1%
PIT 0.0% 6.5%
IND 0.0% 4.3%
OAK 0.0% 4.1%
DET 0.0% 3.4%
CHI 0.0% 1.8%
DAL 0.0% 1.8%
LAR 0.0% 1.3%
PHI 0.0% 1.0%
BUF 0.0% 0.6%
BAL 0.0% 0.6%
CAR 0.0% 0.5%
HOU 0.0% 0.3%
MIN 0.0% 0.2%

 

 

 

Special Super Bowl Matchups

 

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.

 

 

Name Teams Chance
Jimmy Garoppolo Reunion Special SF vs NE 18.2%
GOAT Quarterback Battle NO vs NE 10.4%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 8.3%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 5.5%
Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch PHI vs NE 4.4%
Joe Montana Memories Bowl SF vs KC 4.3%
Battle of the Dynasties DAL vs NE 3.4%
Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch CAR vs NE 2.5%
Willie Roaf Memories Bowl NO vs KC 2.4%
Super Bowl XLVII Rematch SF vs BAL 2.2%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 1.8%
Super Bowl XX Rematch CHI vs NE 1.5%
Gulf Coast Challenge NO vs HOU 1.4%
Matt Patricia Reunion Special DET vs NE 1.2%
Super Bowls XXXVI-LIII Rematch LAR vs NE 1.2%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 1.0%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.9%
1960 Double Dallas Showdown DAL vs KC 0.9%
Earl Thomas Reunion Special SEA vs BAL 0.6%
Bay Area Bowl SF vs OAK 0.6%
Children of Brady SF vs IND 0.5%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.4%
Matt Nagy Reunion Special CHI vs KC 0.3%
Missouri Revenge Bowl LAR vs KC 0.3%
Super Bowl II Rematch GB vs OAK 0.2%
Super Bowl XLIV Rematch NO vs IND 0.2%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 0.2%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 0.2%
AAFC Memorial Bowl SF vs CLE 0.1%
Drew Brees Reunion Special NO vs LAC 0.1%
Fifth Time's The Charm MIN vs BUF 0.1%
Super Bowl XV Rematch PHI vs OAK 0.1%
Super Bowl XI Rematch MIN vs OAK 0.1%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.1%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch DAL vs BUF 0.1%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 0.1%
Frank Reich Reunion Special PHI vs IND 0.1%
Nick Foles Reunion Special PHI vs JAX 0.1%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 0.1%
Super Bowls XLII-XLVI Rematch NYG vs NE 0.1%
Super Bowl V Rematch DAL vs IND 0.1%
Darren Sproles Reunion Special PHI vs LAC 0.1%